Part 1: Predictions, subscriptions and new markets

Hi Brad, how do you actually find the time to do all the things you do?
I spend too much time on the computer.

You have a strong artistic side to you, one not always associated with the IT / tech world. Do you think that has helped you get where you are today?
The non-association may be an error. Go to a place like Burning Man and you'll see lots of techie people engaged in all forms of radical artistic self-expression. Plus all the people who design games, which is how I got into the business. Mathematicians (which is what my degree is in) are known for their strong association with music.

Generally, to merge business and tech, you have to see the big picture and think creatively. That naturally extends into the artistic realm.

Given the pace of change, is it possible to make any predictions about the future development of the Internet and Net business?
Always possible to make predictions. Some will be closer than others, none will be exactly on the mark. In spite of what people think, many people saw today's world decades ago. Search the old human-Nets digests from the 70s where everybody talked of the coming worldNet.

Almost nobody predicted how crazy the market would go for it, and it turns out the market was too crazy anyway, so it was a wise non-prediction.

There's still a lot of life that doesn't involve the Net. A good chunk of it will over time. Some aspects of money (especially for business) will go on the Net or wireless devices.

Mobile devices will actively respond to where you are. (Some want them to tell others where you are but that's dangerous and not needed.) They'll allow physical shoppers (which are not going away) to get the powers of Net shoppers, changing the customer service equation. You'll have a button on your cell phone that says "the service here sucks" and you will be able to threaten to push it.

Presence based services will also bloom, changing how we interact with other people.

Back in 1996 you said, "selling subscriptions for access to information on a web page is probably one thing not to do" Given recent developments, would you say the same thing today?
Yes, it's true today. I made my business on subscriptions, but they were monthly subscriptions to whole sites. People don't want the hassle of paying for small stuff, like access to a single web page. The Wall St. subsidy made them not even want to pay for anything, but once they get over that, they still will want to make only a few purchases.

What are the key issues that are going to determine how the Internet and Net business does in fact develop?

• Security -- we need better security and widespread encryption.
• Pricing for mobile access -- we need flat rate, always on connections, as promised by 3G.
• Standardization for efficient markets

Continued...